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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."